The Rays are going to promote outfielder Chandler Simpson, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Topkin adds that outfielder Richie Palacios is heading back to the injured list with a knee issue. Simpson isn’t yet on Tampa’s 40-man roster, so a corresponding move of some kind will be necessary.
Simpson, 24, is one of the most interesting prospects in baseball on account of his base-stealing acumen. The Rays drafted him with the 70th overall pick in 2022, a Competitive Balance Round B selection. In his first full professional season in 2023, he stole 81 bases in 93 attempts, appearing in just 91 games. Last year, he got into 110 minor league games and swiped 104 bags in 121 attempts. He is 8 for 11 so far here in 2025.
His work at the plate has been competent enough, in a powerless sort of way. He has 1,120 minor league plate appearances thus far across various levels. He has just one home run, which was of the inside-the-park variety. But has walked more than he has struck out, a 9.6% rate of free passes compared to an 8.8% rate of punchouts. That has helped him produce a bizarrely level slash line of .324/.389/.371. That translates to a 123 wRC+, indicating he’s been 23% above league average overall.
It’s a very intriguing combination. Many recent speed specialists have had their production undercut by an inability to put the bat on the ball and/or get on base. Billy Hamilton spent many years as baseball’s fastest man but he hit just .239/.292/.325 in his big league career. While he was a good bet for 50-plus steals annually and some highlight-reel catches, the lack of offense made him difficult to roster. Guys like Juan Pierre, Rajai Davis and Dee Strange-Gordon were somewhat similar, swiping hundreds of bags but with subpar hitting.
If Simpson can get on base a bit more than guys in that group, perhaps he can be a bit more of a difference maker. Though even if not, a player with elite speed and can still be plenty valuable on the basepaths and in the outfield.
Prospect evaluators are a bit split on what kind of big league impact Simpson can make. FanGraphs is one outlet that is especially bullish, as they ranked him the #72 prospect in all of baseball heading into this season. They noted that his contact ability is almost at the level of guys like Luis Arráez and Steven Kwan, though a smidge below. However, they also caution that speed-and-defense players like Myles Straw and Nick Madrigal offer a sort of cautionary tale of how things could go wrong for Simpson with little offensive impact.
The report from FanGraphs also adds that the defense is a work in progress. Simpson was a second baseman in college and is still getting used to the outfield. They note that his routes aren’t always great but his speed gives him a lot of room for error. If he can continue to develop his routes, there’s a tremendous ceiling there.
ESPN gave Simpson the #91 spot heading into the season but Simpson didn’t crack the top 100 with Baseball America, MLB Pipeline or Keith Law of The Athletic. BA ranked him #8 in the Rays’ system coming into the year, seemingly with a bit more concern about the defense and lack of power.
The divisive scouting reports mean that the prospect promotion incentive is not at play here. To be PPI eligible, a player must be on two of the BA/ESPN/MLB Pipeline lists and Simpson only cracked one. It’s too late in the season now for Simpson to get a full year of service time. Even if he’s up for good, he won’t be able to qualify for free agency until after 2031, though he has a chance to reach arbitration after 2027 as a Super Two player.
More to come.
