All around the baseball world, the offseason started with a great deal of hype for the two top talents coming over from Japan to play in MLB: slugger Munetaka Murakami and starter Tatsuya Imai. Both players seemed likely to follow in the footsteps of other recent stars to make the jump from NPB to the majors, including Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Seiya Suzuki, and be among the most coveted free agents on the market. Things did not pan out that way, however, as both players found surprisingly soft markets and wound up taking short-term deals with the hope of returning to the open market after establishing themselves as quality big leaguers.
As they prepare for their respective rookie seasons, Murakami as a member of the White Sox and Imai with the Astros, who is better positioned to do just that? When looking at the contracts the pair got, it’s easy to argue that Imai’s more lucrative deal indicates a greater level of confidence in his ability to succeed. He landed a three-year, $54MM contract with Houston back in January that provides him the opportunity to opt out after either the 2026 or ’27 season. That’s an extra year and $20MM relative to Murakami’s deal in Chicago, not to mention that Murakami doesn’t have an opt-out clause in his deal.
It’s easy to see why teams would’ve had a bit more confidence in Imai than Murakami. Murakami comes with multiple unique questions, including whether his defense will hold up in the majors at either first or third base and whether there’s room for improvement on his extremely low contact rates from his time overseas. Imai doesn’t really come with comparable concerns; his mid-90s velocity and four-pitch mix are strong bets to play in the majors in terms of floor, leaving the Astros less likely to come up completely empty on their investment than the White Sox.
What Murakami lacks in terms of floor, however, it can be argued that he makes up for with exceptional upside. Murakami’s contact rates might be among the lowest in the majors if translated over, but players like Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Kurtz are among the most productive hitters in the entire sport despite high strikeout rates and a proclivity for racking up whiffs. It’s easy to see why Murakami’s sensational exit velocities could allow him to compare to those elite sluggers, particularly given that he only just celebrated his 26th birthday.
It’s fair to wonder if Imai has that sort of elite upside to offer. While his velocity is impressive, scouts have suggested that his fastball lacks the movement necessary to be a high-end pitch. That in conjunction with the control issues he’s flashed at various points in his MLB career might cap his ceiling at something closer to the middle of a big league rotation. Murakami, by contrast, could find himself battling with the likes of Judge and Cal Raleigh at the top of the home run leaderboards if he manages to make enough contact to be productive and continues to grow as a player.
If Murakami breaks out the way some both in Japan and the United States have believed he’s capable of doing, it’s hard to imagine Imai being able to hold a candle to that production no matter how close to his own ceiling he gets. With that said, it could be difficult for either to make much noise in Rookie of the Year conversations. The AL figures to feature a stacked class including players like Kevin McGonigle, Samuel Basallo, Dylan Beavers, Trey Yesavage, and Carter Jensen. Even if Murakami or Imai outproduces those players, their status as foreign professionals already in their mid-20s could still hurt them in Rookie of the Year voting, especially against younger players like McGonigle and Basallo.
How to MLBTR readers view the pair headed into their rookie seasons? Who will have the more productive year? Will either one manage to force themselves into conversations for the AL Rookie of the Year award? Have your say in the polls below:
