The Reserve Bank of Australia is unanimously expected to keep the cash rate at 3.60% on 9 December according to the latest Reuters poll:
- all 38 economists forecasting no move;
- survey also marks a notable shift in the outlook: the median now expects rates to remain unchanged through 2026, compared with expectations for cuts as recently as last month.
The rethink follows a run of firmer data:
- inflation in the monthly CPI accelerated to 3.2%, back above the RBA’s 2–3% target band, suggesting policy may not be as restrictive as previously thought
- strong annual GDP growth
- solid labour market
Most economists now anticipate a prolonged pause. Of those with forecasts out to end-2026:
- 19 of 33 expect no change in the cash rate
- 10 still see cuts
- four expect at least one hike.
Interest-rate futures imply a 70%+ chance of a hike by late 2026, reflecting a shift in risk balance. Several analysts note that while the base case remains “hold,” persistent inflation or renewed labour-market tightening could push the RBA toward a hike.
Among the major 4 Australian banks, Westpac is the lone outlier expecting cuts in 2026; ANZ, CBA and NAB all expect an extended hold.
