Opec+ will raise output by 188,000 bpd in June, but the move is largely symbolic while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed following the US-Israel attack on Iran in late February.

Summary:

• Opec+ nations including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman agreed to raise crude output by 188,000 bpd in June
• The UAE, one of the world’s largest producers, is excluded after leaving Opec effective May 1, having long resisted Saudi-backed output curbs
• The increase is seen as largely symbolic while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed following the US-Israel strike on Iran in late February
• Oil prices fell Friday after Iran put forward a new peace proposal; Trump cast doubt on its prospects Saturday, with Pakistani officials still working to bring both sides back to talks
• A cargo ship was reportedly attacked in the Hormuz strait on Sunday, though a broader ceasefire between Iran, the US and Israel appeared to be holding

Opec+ has agreed to raise crude oil production by 188,000 barrels per day in June, but analysts and markets are treating the move as largely symbolic given the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The group, which includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, said it would continue to closely monitor market conditions while retaining the flexibility to adjust, pause or reverse its output decisions. The United Arab Emirates is not part of the calculation, having formally left Opec on May 1 after years of friction over Saudi-backed production curbs that limited the country’s ability to monetise its own reserves.

The production increase means little in practical terms while the strategic Hormuz waterway remains blocked. The strait has been effectively closed since the United States and Israel struck Iran in late February, severing the main route for crude exports from the Persian Gulf. Even if a ceasefire takes hold, analysts caution that rebuilding damaged infrastructure and restoring full export capacity will take considerable time.

Diplomatic activity has picked up. Iran submitted a fresh peace proposal that briefly weighed on oil prices late last week. President Trump downplayed its prospects on Saturday, and Iranian officials were still reviewing the US response. Pakistani officials have been working to get both sides back to the negotiating table, though no breakthrough has been confirmed.

The situation in the strait itself remains fragile. A cargo vessel was reportedly attacked there on Sunday, a reminder of how volatile the waterway remains even as the broader ceasefire appeared to be holding.