We’re starting to see oil prices approach the highs from yesterday and most notably, WTI crude oil is wanting to hold above the crucial $80 mark. Despite all the volatility and a couple of downside spikes here and there, it’s been an otherwise one-sided push higher mostly for oil prices all through this week.
Right now, we’re seeing WTI crude oil be up 0.7% on the day to $81.70 while Brent crude oil is up 0.6% near the $86 mark. All of this will just continue to reinvigorate talks of prices potentially hitting triple digits next.
WTI crude oil 15-minute chart ($/bbl)
The way I see it, the oil market is basically a translation of the vote of confidence from broader market participants towards the US-Iran conflict. And with weekend positioning risks to consider, traders appear to be erring to the side of caution.
From earlier:
“The $80 mark is a key line in the sand now. A push above that suggests that traders are growing ever more nervous about the Middle East conflict. Keep below and it leans more towards simmering tensions with hopes that things will settle down soon enough.
If traders get around the idea of holding above $80, I’m afraid we might get a rush to much higher levels and even see talks about triple digits quite quickly. But again, the overall situation remains fluid and we are subject to the headline developments at this stage.
As we look to the weekend, there are some thing to be wary about. The first being that Gulf nations might be hitting a bit of a pain threshold soon enough. And that could see them pressure the US into taking a step back on the conflict. Yes, Iran is the common enemy in all of this. However, the chaos and constant energy disruptions might be too difficult to keep ignoring if it carries on for weeks on end.
Adding to that is Trump also putting it out there that Iran wants to talk. It might be something or it might be nothing. But the point is, he has put the conversation out for the world to see. For now, he’s saying that it is “too little too late”. However, we all know Trump and when you combine the things he detest the most i.e. high oil prices, falling stock market, and Fed rate cut odds diminishing, he could also be nearing the infamous TACO threshold.”
