The RBNZ cut rates by 25 bps to 2.25% today, but with policymakers signaling this is likely the final cut of the cycle, the NZDUSD surged sharply higher. The pair is up 1.21%, making it the strongest performer among the major currencies. Technically, the move gathered momentum immediately after the decision, with price breaking above the 200-hour moving average at 0.56317 and then powering through the 38.2% retracement of the October decline at 0.56616. Buyers extended the rally above the 50% midpoint and the swing zone between 0.56796 and 0.56910, reaching a session high of 0.5695 before stalling.
The subsequent pullback was orderly, with buyers stepping in exactly at the 38.2% retracement (0.56616)—a successful retest that increases the importance of that level as support going forward. As long as NZDUSD holds above 0.56616, the buyer bias remains intact. On the topside, a break back above 0.5691 is needed to re-open the door toward further upside and strengthen the bullish bias today and beyond.
