Today we had the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 tracker taken down to -2.8% from -1.8% previously. A different tracker from a different Fed branch is painting a completely different picture.
The NY Fed tracker was revised higher to 2.86% vs 2.72% prior.
“News from this week’s data releases increased the 2025:Q1 estimate by 0.2 percentage point and left the 2025:Q2 estimate largely unchanged,” it says.
The quarter ends this weekend but there is still plenty of data to come before we get a good sense of GDP. Even then much of it is skewed by tariff front-running and adjustments.
“A negative surprise from personal consumption data was offset by a positive surprise from manufacturers’ new orders data for both quarters, along with a positive impact from parameter revisions for 2025:Q1,” the report said.
