I saw this from Nomura on Friday and am a wee bit slow to post it. here it is now.

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With U.S.–China trade tensions expected to escalate following the Trump administration’s latest “America First” policy review, China’s measured response to new U.S. tariffs appears to be a calculated move, according to Nomura.

In a report led by Chief China Economist Lu Ting, Nomura analysed China’s capacity to replace U.S. imports with goods from other countries. While there are some substitution options for items like LNG, engine parts, and scrap copper, the range is narrow. For key imports such as soybeans, semiconductors, crude oil, and aircraft, viable alternatives are either limited or would take years to scale.

Against this backdrop, Nomura says Beijing’s restrained reaction to a recent 20% U.S. tariff makes strategic sense. Any aggressive retaliation risks harming China’s own economy given its reliance on certain U.S. goods.

With few easy trade-offs available, Nomura concludes that a cautious approach helps China preserve economic stability while managing growing geopolitical and trade pressures.