NZ Finance Minister Nicola Willis pre-bidget speech – said Treasury’s latest forecasts show New Zealand’s economy is still expected to grow in the coming year, but worsening conditions — particularly following President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs — have dampened the outlook, cutting expected GDP growth for 2025 and 2026.

She warned that weaker growth risks derailing the government’s fiscal strategy, potentially delaying the return to surplus.

Originally, Treasury had forecast a surplus by 2029, but Willis aims to achieve it a year earlier.

Willis noted that the limited new spending in this Budget means Treasury’s latest projections — though not final — still show a surplus in 2029.

She stressed that had the government allowed for greater spending, it would have led to even larger deficits and rising debt, given the global economic headwinds.

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