Oil is having a rough week, falling $12 from the weekly peak. It’s bounced 60-cents today but with the Iran-Israel war seemingly wrapped up and Trump endorsing Iran’s oil exports to China, the geopolitical risks are lower than they were a month ago.
One potential risk to crude supply is fresh US sanctions on Russia, something a group of US Senators have been working towards, led by Lindsay Graham. However the possibility of further US sanctions was downplayed by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in comments to NATO minister today. Furthermore, there are indications that Senate leadership is in no rush to take up the bill, and that it will leave plenty of ‘flexibility’ for Trump on the implementation.
Even at a buttoned-up summit where NATO officials have been wary of saying or doing anything to upset Trump ahead of the formal adoption of a new spending pledge, some Europeans have been venting quietly about the administration’s lack of urgency about the war in Ukraine.
“At a certain point, it’s going to look like Putin is playing Trump for a fool,” one of the European diplomats said of the Russian president. “Trump says he wants to end the war. And the only way the war is going to end is if we increase the amount of pressure on Putin.”
WTI crude last traded at $65.09.
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