U.S. stocks are trading lower despite a stronger-than-expected jobs report, as market focus has shifted sharply toward escalating trade tensions. China responded to the latest U.S. tariff measures by announcing 34% retaliatory tariffs, matching those imposed by President Trump the day prior. The renewed tariff war has injected fresh uncertainty into markets.
The VIX volatility index spiked as high as 45.56% before pulling back to 37%, reflecting growing trader anxiety and increased demand for downside protection.
At session lows:
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The NASDAQ fell into bear market territory, down -21.21% from its all-time high on December 16, 2024.
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The S&P 500 recorded a -15.27% drawdown from its February 19, 2025 high.
Key technical levels to watch:
NASDAQ Index
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Support: The next key downside target is the swing low from August 5, 2024, at 15,708.54, which previously marked a -15.77% decline from record highs.
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Resistance: To ease the downside pressure, the index needs to climb back above the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the October 2022 low, which comes in at 16,340.36.
S&P 500 Index
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Support: The 38.2% retracement of the move from the October 2022 low is at 5,130.87, just above the August 2024 Fed-related low of 5,119.26—a point that marked a -9.68% decline from peak levels before rebounding.
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Resistance: On the topside, 5,402.62 is the next key level. That level aligns with swing lows from early September 2024, and a break above it would relieve some of the current selling pressure.
S&P technicals
PS. It is the end of the week, and the Nasdaq is on pace to close below the 100-day MA at 16259.60. That would be the first weekly close below the 100-day MA since May 2023. The % decline for the week, currently at 8.05%, is the worst week since March 16, 2020 when the index tumbled -12.64% due to the pandemic.
