- Consensus estimate +135K
- Estimate range +50K to +185K
- February was +151K
- Private consensus +135K versus +151K prior
- Unemployment rate consensus estimate 4.1% versus 4.1% prior
- Prior unrounded unemployment rate 4.1396%
- Prior participation rate 62.4%
- Prior underemployment U6 8.0%
- Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.9% versus +4.0% prior
- Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.3% prior
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.2 versus 34.1 prior
Numbers released so far this month:
- ADP report +155K versus +84K prior
- ISM services employment 46.2 vs 53.9 prior
- ISM manufacturing employment 44.7 vs 47.6 prior
- Challenger job cuts 275.2k vs 172.0k prior
- Philly employment +19.7 vs +5.3 prior
- Empire employment -4.1 vs -3.6 prior
- Initial jobless claims survey week 225K vs 219K prior
The strongest argument for a good number in March is that February jobs (particularly in leisure & hospitality) were depressed by poor weather.
Seasonally, BMO reports that that the unemployment rate tends to run low but the headline also tends to run low. Historic data shows 42% of previous unemployment reads in March have been lower-than-expected, 31% have been higher-than-
estimates, and 27% have matched the consensus. The headline payrolls print is seasonally soft in February, coming in below estimates 56% of the time and beating
44% of the time, by 73k and 64k, respectively, on average.
This would not be a good time for a big miss.
