One of the big risks to a ceasefire in the Middle East is that Israel refuses to stop operations in Lebanon or that Iran makes a total ceasefire there a definite condition of any deal.

My guess is that we wouldn’t have gotten this far down the road if there weren’t some positive indications.

The US State Dept is also out with some headlines on the Israel-Lebanon talks. The US has described as “open, direct, high-level” and are the first bi-lateral talks since 1993.

• U.S. Department issues statement after U.S.-Israel-Lebanon trilateral meeting in Washington

• Discussed steps to start direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon

• U.S. expressed support for further talks

• U.S. expressed hope talks would go beyond scope of 2024 agreement

• U.S. expressed hope talks would lead to peace agreement

• Israel affirmed commitment to working Lebanon to disarm non-state ‘terror’ groups and their infrastructure

• Israel expressed commitment to direct negotiations to resolve outstanding issues, achieve peace

• Lebanon called for ceasefire and measures to address humanitarian crisis

• Parties agreed to start direct negotiations at mutually agreed time and place

The people said to be involved in the talks:

• Nada Hamadeh: Lebanese Ambassador to the US
• Yechiel Leiter: Israeli Ambassador to the US
• Marco Rubio: US Secretary of State
• Michel Issa: US Ambassador to Lebanon, acting as a facilitator
• Michael Needham: State Department Counselor, also facilitating

The inclusions of Rubio hints at something big but it’s tough to imagine this can fit into the timeline that they’re working on with Iran and the US. On the less-optimistic side, Israel is continuing strikes and operations in southern Lebanon.

WTI crude oil last traded down $7.30 to $91.78 and the S&P 500 is up 1.0%. A WSJ report is also just out saying that Europe could be doing the de-mining in Hormuz.

European countries are putting together a plan for a broad coalition of countries to help free up shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including sending mine- clearing and other military vessels. But the plan would only come after the war and may exclude one country in particular: the U.S.

That plan might make it more palatable for Iran.