JPMorgan expects U.S.–China trade tensions to ease somewhat when President Trump and Chinese President Xi meet at the October 31 to November 1 APEC summit in South Korea, but warns that not all issues will be resolved.
Analyst Abiel Reinhart said the most probable outcome is a pause on any new 100% tariffs and more flexible export-control rules to prevent a full-scale embargo. However, he cautioned that escalation could occur in the lead-up to the meeting.
If no truce is reached and proposed measures proceed, Reinhart warned, it could amount to an effective U.S. embargo on Chinese exports, disrupt American manufacturing, intensify Washington’s curbs on China’s chip sector, and provoke fresh limits on U.S. exports to China.
