Monday (May 19)

Markets closed for Victoria Day – nothing scheduled.

Tuesday (May 20) – CPI day

• GoC bill auctions: 3-mth C$17.6 bln, 6-mth C$6.2 bln, 1-yr C$6.2 bln.

• 08:30 ET – April CPI (consensus)

  • Headline m/m -0.2 % (prior +0.3 %)

  • Headline y/y 1.6 % (prior 2.3 %)

  • Core Median y/y 2.9 % (prior 2.9 %)

  • Core Trim y/y 2.8 % (prior 2.8 %)

I think the Bank of Canada will be more-focused on the core measures here but the headline will certainly give them cover to cut. Right now the market is pricing in a 64% chance rates are lowered by 25 bps.

Wednesday (May 21)

Thursday (May 22)

Friday (May 23) – Retail wrap-up

USD/CAD looks to be wrapping up the week just below 1.40.