- Prior +1.1%
- HICP +1.2% vs +1.2% y/y prelim
- Prior +1.1%
The changes in headline annual inflation is light with core annual inflation keeping stable at 1.7% in December. On average, Italian consumer price inflation is seen growing by 1.5% in 2025. And that’s a step up from the 1.0% back in 2024. That being said, it’s in a sweet spot so to speak in keeping just under the key 2% threshold.
As for core inflation though, it is seen growing by 1.9% in 2025 compared to the 2.0% in 2024. So, it is in a similar spot and reaffirms a “healthier” inflation picture in Italy.
If this was Germany, the ECB would be extremely happy with the numbers. But alas, that is not the case. As things stand, the biggest concern to the inflation picture in the euro area remains that of Germany’s and also to some extent Spain’s at the moment.
The more stubborn price pressures there are not allowing for further monetary policy easing, with the situation in Germany being watched closely amid potential stagflation fears.
