Explainer on this:

The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General License 8L (GL 8L) on January 10, 2025, as part of the Russian Harmful Foreign Activities Sanctions program.

ie, this was issued under the Biden administration.

This license authorized specific transactions related to energy involving certain sanctioned Russian financial institutions, including Vnesheconombank, Bank Financial Corporation Otkritie, Sovcombank, Sberbank, VTB Bank, Alfa-Bank, Rosbank, Bank Zenit, Bank Saint-Petersburg, and the Central Bank of Russia.

The authorization was set to expire at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on March 12, 2025. ​

A “waiver” in this context refers to an exemption that allows certain activities to continue despite existing sanctions. GL 8L served as such a waiver by permitting specific energy-related transactions with designated Russian financial institutions that would otherwise be prohibited under the sanctions regime. This facilitated the continuation of essential energy operations while maintaining the broader objectives of the sanctions.​

It’s important to note that GL 8L expired on March 12, 2025. Entities previously relying on this license must now cease the formerly authorized activities unless a new license is issued or another exemption applies. Engaging in such transactions without proper authorization could result in violations of U.S. sanctions laws.

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The flip side of this is if Trump does extend the waiver the support it may have been providing the oil price will disappear.

Comments welcome!