Research led by the Union of Concerned Scientists reports that emissions from the world’s largest fossil fuel and cement companies have contributed significantly to both present-day and long-term sea level rise. Products from 122 major producers have contributed up to 37% of the rise in global sea level observed through 2022 and may account for an additional 0.26 to 0.55 meters by 2300.

Greenhouse gas emissions have created an energy imbalance in Earth’s climate system, primarily through increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane from fossil fuel combustion. Previous work has linked national greenhouse gas emissions to sea level rise.

Sea level rise results in intensified flooding, erosion, and loss of freshwater, disproportionately affecting vulnerable coastal and island communities and ecosystems. Long atmospheric lifetimes of greenhouse gases and the slow response of oceanic and cryospheric systems to warming have compounded the issue.

In the study, “Estimating the sea level rise responsibility of industrial carbon producers,” published in Environmental Research Letters, researchers conducted a climate attribution modeling study to evaluate how producers of industrial emissions contribute to projected future sea level rise.

The research team assembled emissions records from 122 of the world’s largest fossil fuel and cement companies dating back to 1854. The data included annual amounts of carbon dioxide and methane released through the production and use of oil, gas, coal, and cement.

Using a climate model designed to estimate long-term global changes, researchers simulated how much warming and sea level rise could be linked to these emissions. They ran the model under several future global emissions pathways and then created three alternative histories by removing the emissions of these companies starting in 1854, 1950, or 1990.

The model produced hundreds of simulations for each scenario and was checked against real-world sea level rise from the past century to confirm its accuracy.

In simulations that included full historical emissions, global average temperature from 1990 to 2020 rose by 1.00 °C above preindustrial levels. When emissions from the 122 companies were removed starting in 1854 or 1950, that warming was reduced to 0.54 °C and 0.56 °C, respectively. If emissions had been removed beginning in 1990, warming would fall to 0.78 °C.

Data revealed that these 122 companies’ emissions were responsible for 37% to 58% of the observed temperature rise, depending on how far back their emissions were excluded.

A similar pattern appeared in sea level rise. From 1900 to 2022, sea level rose by 0.20 meters. Without emissions from these fossil fuel producers, sea level rise would have been closer to 0.14 meters. Removing just the emissions post-1990 yielded ~0.17 meters by 2022, underscoring the accelerated nature of the effects.

By the year 2300, emissions traced to these companies are projected to add between 0.26 and 0.55 meters of sea level rise, depending on the future emissions pathway the world follows. Researchers found little difference in these long-term outcomes across optimistic or high-emissions futures, indicating that the long-term impact of past emissions is already locked in.

Results suggest that delayed mitigation and continued emissions from industrial carbon producers are responsible for a significant and measurable portion of current and future sea level rise. While removing fossil-fuel-derived aerosols might offset short-term warming, the effect does not substantially change the long-term sea-level estimates.

The findings offer a scientific basis for attributing a portion of sea level rise to specific industrial producers, a result the authors note could inform legal or policy efforts to assign corporate responsibility for intergenerational climate impacts.

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