HSBC Global Research projects the Shanghai Composite at 4,500, the CSI 300 at 5,400, and the Shenzhen Component at 16,000 by 2026, suggesting gains of 17–20%.
The bank’s optimism rests on three assumptions:
- no U.S. recession,
- sustained AI-related capital expenditure,
- and ongoing Federal Reserve rate cuts.
HSBC expects corporate earnings to rebound in 2026, led by electronic components, with ample liquidity providing further support.
