Upsets are what make March Madness unpredictable, but picking too many can ruin your bracket. The key is knowing which underdogs have a real shot and which ones are just long shots. Here are 10 things to consider when picking upsets in your bracket.

1. No. 12 and No. 13 Seeds Are Your Best Bet

No. 12 seeds beat No. 5 seeds 35.3% of the time, and No. 13 seeds have a 21.15% win rate against No. 4 seeds. At least one of these seeds wins almost every year, making them smart picks for early-round upsets.

2. No. 2 Seeds Are Vulnerable

No. 2 seeds have been vulnerable, with at least one failing to reach the Sweet 16 in 24 of the past 27 tournaments. Look to have at least one No.2 seed out of your bracket by the time the Sweet 16 rolls around.

3. Avoid Overloading Your Bracket With Upsets

It’s tempting to pick a ton of upsets, but that’s a common mistake. History shows that most teams in the Sweet 16 and beyond are top seeds. Balance is key—take a few smart risks but don’t fill your bracket with double-digit seeds making deep runs.

4. Watch for First Four Teams Making a Run

Since the First Four was introduced in 2011, at least one team has won multiple games in the main bracket almost every year. These teams already have a tournament win under their belt, giving them momentum heading into the first round. A team like UNC could make a surprise run come tournament time.

5. Teams With Strong Defense Can Pull Off Shockers

Underdogs that defend well can slow down higher-seeded teams and keep games close. If an underdog ranks highly in defensive efficiency, they’re a prime upset candidate. Teams like New Mexico and Arkansas fit this mold.

6. Three-Point Shooting Is a Game-Changer

If a lower-seeded team shoots the three well, they can take down better teams in a hurry. Look for teams that attempt a high volume of threes and shoot a good percentage—they can flip a game in just a few minutes. No. 13 seed, Grand Canyon shoots more threes than just about any other team in the tournament, making them a team with good potential to cause a couple of upsets.

7. Injuries Can Swing a Matchup

If a top seed is missing a key player or dealing with injuries, their upset risk increases. Stay updated on injury reports before locking in your picks.

8. Look at Teams That Finished the Season Hot

Teams that enter the tournament on a winning streak are often dangerous, even if they’re lower seeds. Momentum matters, and a team that just won its conference tournament is often more dangerous than its seeding suggests.

9. Don’t Sleep on No. 8 and No. 9 Seeds

These teams aren’t major upsets in the first round, but No. 8 seeds have a history of beating No. 1 seeds in the second round. If a No. 1 seed looks vulnerable, their No. 8 or No. 9 opponent could be worth a bold pick. A team like Gonzaga could be one to bust a bracket wide open this year.

10. Pay Attention to Matchup Styles

Some upsets happen simply because a lower-seeded team is a bad stylistic matchup for their opponent. If an underdog plays at a different pace or forces a lot of turnovers, they can throw a higher seed off their game.

Smart upsets come from a mix of trends, matchups, and gut instinct. Follow these guidelines, and you’ll give yourself the best shot at picking the right underdogs without going overboard.