Rate cuts by year-end
- Fed: 59 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- BoE: 52 bps (84% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- ECB: 8 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- BoC: 9 bps (96% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- SNB: 8 bps (89% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 46 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- RBA: 43 bps (83% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- RBNZ: 28 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
You can find last week’s market pricing here.
It’s been a pretty lacklustre week amid limited news and data releases. Therefore, it shouldn’t be surprising to see very small changes in in market pricing.
The most notable moves were seen on BoJ and RBA side. We got a slightly dovish repricing for the BoJ after a Mainichi report revealed that Japanese PM Takaichi opposed further rate hikes during her meeting with Governor Ueda last week.
Following the higher than expected Australian monthly CPI, traders firmed up expectations for a back-to-back RBA rate hike in March but the probabilities fell a little after Governor Bullock called for patience.
Finally, we got a slightly dovish repricing for the Fed despite strong US data this week. This was most likely caused by the stock market weakness amid persistent US-Iran tensions as the US macro picture remains solid.
