Rolls-Royce (LSE: RR.) shares got off to a blistering start in 2026. The share price has surged over 13% in the first two months of the year. But with spring arriving, a few spanners might have been thrown in the works. Here are three key areas that might make the month of March a huge one for the stock.

• The conflict in Iran: what will be the knock-on effects for the Defence and Civil Aerospace sides of the business?
• The debate around Europe’s next generation fighter jets: will Rolls-Royce engines be a mainstay in future military aircraft?
• Government support for Ultrafan engine: is taxpayer support on its way or is this going to be dismissed as unnecessary corporate welfare?

Let’s examine each issue, and figure out whether Rolls-Royce shares are a good value buy as birds start chirping and flowers start blooming.

Impact

The big news of the month is, of course, the growing conflict in the Middle East. What has been the impact on the Rolls-Royce share price? It’s down 6% in the last five days.

On the one hand, these kind of events often have a positive effect on defence stocks like Rolls-Royce. The BAE Systems share price has risen 7% in the same timeframe.

On the other, a prolonged conflict will reduce flying hours substantially. Many civilian flights have already been grounded. This is a serious issues as the engines Rolls-Royce supplies for passenger planes are not the main driver of revenues; it’s the maintenance instead.

It’s worth mentinoing at this point that the terrible humanitarian consequences of such events can put investors off entirely.

Forthcoming

A second issue at the moment is the production of Europe’s next fighter jets. One of the possible projects, a UK-Italy-Japan collaboration, will be using Rolls-Royce engines. The other possible project, a partnership between Germany and France, is on life support. CEO Tufan Erginbilgiç has said he would welcome Germany joining the British effort, which would be a boost for the company.

A third thing to be aware of is the request for government support for the firm’s new engines. On the one hand, asking for taxpayer money for a company that has just earmarked £9bn in share buyback sounds like the worst kind of corporate welfare. On the other, the UK lags global peers in support for its manufacturing companies. And the new folks in charge made a big deal about the kind of investment that drives growth and jobs. I suspect the support will be forthcoming for those reasons.

On the whole? There are plenty of bright spots here, enough to make Rolls-Royce a stock worth considering, in my view. Although investors should be aware of the risks that the ongoing conflict in Iran present.