Around 2.2% of China’s GDP is directly impacted by U.S. tariffs, according to a note from Nomura economists.

They estimate that the U.S. accounted for 14.7% of China’s total goods exports in 2024, a figure that rises to 15.2% when including re-exports through Hong Kong, and to 20.6% when factoring in rerouted trade flows. After accounting for exemptions — with about 16.3% of exports not subject to reciprocal tariffs — the economists calculate that tariffs are directly hitting 2.2% of China’s GDP.

They also warn that the true economic impact could be larger, as the shock spills over into other areas, particularly the services sectors that support merchandise exports.

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