A newswire report is just out talking about a six month timeline for an Iran deal, citing Gulf and European officials.

It’s worth highlighting that the original JCPOA took two years to negotiate. The nightmare strategy here is that the Strait stays closed during negotiations or that risks are so high that tankers won’t take the risk.

Obviously, that’s an intolerable situation for the global economy and we’ve seen some equity selling on the headline.

Here’s a bit of a history lesson: The WWI ceasefire was agreed at 5:10 am and the armistice went into effect at 11:11 am on November 11, 1918 but the Treaty of Versailles wasn’t signed until June 1919 (more than seven months later) and it didn’t go into effect until Jan 1920. And that was with Germany defeated and essentially being dictated the terms of the peace.

So these things take time to paper but all that really matters for markets is the Strait.