• It looks like they’re starting to produce lists of exclusions for specific categories
• But have not yet seen any official announcement or policy on exclusions
• Some member companies have said that they have been able to bring in goods without tariffs being levied on them in the past week
• China commerce ministry is one of the organisations reviewing tariffs
• US department of commerce has also been soliciting opinions

There’s really two ways to look at this. On the one hand, tariff exclusions are a positive development as opposed to a complete standoff in trade. On the other hand, it just means that tariffs in general are going to be more of a mainstay by the look of things.

As for the latter, it still doesn’t mean that trade tensions are going to be resolved any time soon. And it will only be a matter of time before this translates to hard data and eventually economic data. If we’ve not priced in downside risks to that, there’s a danger of a pitfall when the time comes.