FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW
Gold got a boost yesterday
after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire as easing financial conditions
supported a broader risk-on sentiment. However, those gains were later wiped
out when Israel launched an attack on Lebanon, triggering backlash, with Iran
insisting that Lebanon was included in the ceasefire agreement.
For now, the ceasefire is
still holding, at least until tomorrow, when the US-Iran negotiations are set
to take place in Islamabad. The talks could be extended if both sides agree.
There’s still a risk that
the conflict could restart at any moment, since the US and Iran have not officially
ended the hostilities. Nonetheless, the short-term bias has turned more bullish
for gold, as traders reprice the hawkish expectations. Having said that, the sentiment
could reverse quickly if negotiations fail and the war resumes.
GOLD TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
Gold – daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold broke above the trendline yesterday following the ceasefire
announcement. The buyers will likely continue to pile in around these levels
with a defined risk below the most recent swing low to keep targeting the
trendline around the 5,000 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for
a break below the swing low at 4,555 to regain control and position for a drop
into the 4,000 level next.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4
HOUR TIMEFRAME
Gold – 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we have
an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers will likely lean
on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs.
The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to extend the pullback into
the swing low around the 4,555 level.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1
HOUR TIMEFRAME
Gold – 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we
have a counter-trendline defining the pullback into the upward trendline. The
sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new
lows, while the buyers will look for a break to pile in for a rally into the
5,000 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Today we get the US PCE price index and the latest US Jobless Claims
figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US CPI report and the
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. The market focus is now on
the US-Iran negotiations expected for tomorrow in Islamabad.
