Gold has perked above the Asian high of $3508 from earlier today and touched a fresh record at $3512.

The close today is important as gold has been consolidating for months below $3500 and a break higher could mark the start of an extended run. There is plenty to like on the fundamental side as Trump undermines the US dollar by stacking the Fed and creates uncertainty by sacking the head of the BLS.

Seasonally, gold does poorly traditionally in September, so that’s a headwind. It’s the worst month for gold but is followed by seasonal strength in Nov/Dec though Feb. Given that, a pullback might be worth riding out.

The downside risk for me comes if the courts block Trump’s tariffs and Congress also refuses to endorse them. That could unwind much of the turmoil this year and de-fang Trump. It could also create some sovereign debt concerns.