The problem with a secret ballot is that it is as the name implies, a secret. That means as things stand, Merz wouldn’t even know who he has to talk to in order to turn the votes around unless those who opposed owns up to it. And let’s face it, that never happens in politics.

If they just go in blindly and he loses again, it would be extremely damaging to his and the coalition’s position and credibility. The risk outweighs the reward in this case. As such, it would be prudent to hold it off for the time being.

As a reminder, a second vote can be called within the next 14 days now but the same ruling applies i.e. an absolute majority of 316 votes is needed to win.