The GBPUSD moved higher after the weaker-than-expected U.S. CPI report, but the rally quickly lost steam once price reached the 100-hour moving average. Buyers turned to sellers, capping the move and sending the pair back lower.
The decline pushed the pair below the key swing area between 1.3323 and 1.3341, and through the early-week lows near 1.3305, to a new session low at 1.32865. Buyers had their chance — they failed — and sellers have taken control.
Going forward, the 1.3323–1.3341 zone now acts as near-term resistance, with the falling 100-hour MA at 1.33545 just above it. It would take a move back above those levels to shift the short-term bias higher. Absent that, sellers remain in command.
On the downside, the lows from last week at 1.3247–1.3259 are the first target area for further declines. Below that, the rising 200-day MA at 1.3225 becomes the next key focus. The pair hasn’t traded below the 200-day MA since April. A break under that level would expose the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 trading range at 1.3140, which also lines up with prior swing levels from July 2023.
Heading into the weekend, sellers have control — and the question now is whether they can carry the momentum into next week.
