The market mood has swung around since this same time yesterday, with optimism bouncing back after US president Trump talked up hopes for a deal with Iran. Adding to that is reports that we are likely to see a second round of negotiations later this week. Both sides are reportedly weighing their options before potentially meeting back at the round table on Thursday in Islamabad again.

For now, the US blockade remains and the Strait of Hormuz is still in de facto closure. However, markets are looking to move on already but is that really the right move? Only time will. There’s a ticking bomb in the oil market with the May contract futures set to run its course next week. So, there’s that to consider. And what bodes ill for oil prices will have major reverberations for broader market sentiment too, so keep that in mind.

In the major currencies space, the dollar has fallen back with EUR/USD jumping back up above 1.1700 overnight to hang around 1.1760 levels now. There aren’t any major expiries that will be of much influence today. As such, trading sentiment will largely be dictated by the dollar mood and headline risks that may drop along the session.

But as we’ve seen as of late, it is usually when Trump wakes up that we’ll get added volatility to markets. In the meantime, it may be a bit of a rangy and cagey session in Europe up next.

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