• “Trump’s tariff regime will be more disruptive to global economy than markets are pricing”
• China says that it has discovered a major oilfield in the eastern South China Sea
• Reserve Bank of Australia should cut now – “Global Economic Outlook Goes Into a Tailspin”
• Nasdaq Futures Analysis by tradeCompass
• Gold to a record high above US$3100
• China – Nanjing has lifted home purchase limits starting March 31
• Weekend: Trump revoked permits and waivers allowing Western firms to operate in Venezuela
• Musk says no plans for the US government to use DOGE coin
• Japan’s Finance Minister Kato says excessive moves on forex are undesirable
• China March official Manufacturing PMI 50.5 (expected of 50.5)
• CBA expects RBA on hold this week, with a more dovish tone
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1782 (vs. estimate at 7.2593)
• Australia Private Sector Credit February 2025 +0.5% m/m (expected +0.5%, prior +0.5%)
• Japan government official says output higher not due to tariff front running
• Australian March private inflation survey +0.7% m/m (prior -0.2%) & 2.8% y/y (2.2% prior)
• New Zealand March business confidence 57.5 (prior 58.4)
• Japan February Industrial Output (preliminary) +2.5% m/m (expected +2.3%, prior -1.1%)
• Japan data – February retail sales +1.4% y/y (expected +2.0%, prior +4.4%)
• Trump says not putting on oil sanctions right now
• Trump weighs broader, higher tariffs. Across-the-board hike of up to 20% considered.
• UK business confidence held steady in March, matching February’s six-month high
• People’s Bank of China punishes two who spread false info about interest-rate cuts
• Trump is planning to travel to Saudi Arabia in mid-May
• Globex is open for the new week – US equity index futures lower
• Goldman Sachs says 35% chance of recession (from 20%) in 12 months
• US news – Republican Party headquarters in Albuquerque firebombed with Molotov Cocktail
• China injects $69 billion into state banks to bolster economy
• Japan planning to officially recognize crypto assets as financial products – Nikkei report
• Trump said he is annoyed with Putin, threatens ‘secondary tariffs’ on Russian oil
• Trade ideas thread – Monday, 31 March, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
• Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 31 March 2025
• The Fed put and the Trump put may both be gone
• Nomura: Beijing’s cautious tariff response is pragmatic amid limited import alternatives
• Elon Musk sells Twitter to xAI
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar slides despite risk rout. Another gold record

Markets
in Asia were always going to be on edge after the huge slide on Wall
Street on Friday. Equities got a further shove lower as
renewed tariff threats from Trump shook investor confidence and
prompted a sharp reassessment of economic risks. Trump said he plans
to launch his reciprocal tariff push against “all countries,”
reinforcing expectations of a sweeping trade crackdown that could see
levies of up to 20% imposed on nearly all U.S. trading partners.
While the precise scope remains undecided (with two days to go still
undecided … hard to believe), administration insiders say the final
policy will be “big and simple,” likely broader than earlier
plans targeting just top trading partners.

Goldman
Sachs responded by lifting its 12-month U.S. recession probability to
35%, up from 20% previously, citing higher inflation, higher
unemployment, and associated growth-dampening risks of a broad-based
tariff regime. The last time recession odds were this high was during
the aggressive Fed tightening cycle in 2022 and the SVB-related
turmoil of early 2023. We didn’t get recessions those times,
fingers crossed the luck holds out.

In
Asian data, Japan’s industrial production surged at its fastest
pace in nearly a year as manufacturers rushed to fill orders ahead of
expected U.S. tariff hikes. Meanwhile, China’s official PMI showed
manufacturing activity accelerating to a 12-month high in March,
buoyed by strong domestic demand and front-loaded export orders.
Still, Capital Economics noted that overall growth momentum remains
uneven, with continued softness in the services sector (despite the PMI expanding).

In other news from China, Nanjing, the capital of East China’s Jiangsu Province,
removed all home purchase restrictions.

In
Australia, an uptick in (a private survey of) monthly inflation data reversed February’s
softness, tempering market hopes that price pressures might soon fall
comfortably back within the RBA’s target band. The data may prompt RBA policymakers to remain cautious about further easing. The Bank makes
its interest rate decision Tuesday Australia time, with markets
almost unanimously expecting an on hold decision.

Elsewhere,
a new report from The
Information
revealed that some tech firms are beginning to scale back AI spending
sharply, citing cost efficiencies from platforms like DeepSeek,
adding a fresh wrinkle to the AI investment narrative.

In
FX markets yen was a notable mover, with USD/JPY dropping under 149.00
again. Safe haven demand in the face of geopolitical stress alongside
tariff chaos, and lower US yields contributing. Speaking of a safe
haven, gold rocketed even higher, to a record high above US$3110.

EUR,
GBP were both up a little while AUD and NZD are more or less flat.

Equities
were hit:

• Shenzen
  down more than 1%
• ChiNext
  down more than 1%
• Shanghai
  Composite down 0.6%
• Hong
  Kong’s Hang Seng -1.3%
• Japan’s
  Nikkei -4% (3.9 as I update to be more precise)
• US
  equity futures -0.7%

USD/JPY: