• Goldman Sachs says China’s growth outlook hinges on execution of stimulus measures
• Japan auto lobby- ‘significant production adjustments’ if US tariffs can’t be avoided Apr2
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is speaking at 0630 GMT / 0230 US Eastern time
• Bank of Japan leaves policy unchanged, as expected
• Fed meeting Wednesday – to hold rates steady as policy uncertainty looms, says BofA
• Fed’s wait-and-see approach shifting due to the inflation threat of an expansive trade war
• Trump official Witkoff says talks with Russia on Ukraine on Sunday in Jeddah
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1697 (vs. estimate at 7.2330)
• Bank of Japan decision soon – expect a hawkish tone, but of rate hike timing is uncertain
• Irish central bank trims growth forecasts amid global policy uncertainty
• Australia Westpac Leading Index “firms but detail suggests gains are fragile”
• Japan machinery orders +4.4% y/y (expected +6.9%)
• Japan data: February exports +11.4% y/y (expected +12.1%)
• Is Trump building the foundations to fire Fed Chair Powell and other Fed members?
• Deutsche Bank cuts Q1 US GDP forecast to 1.5% amid soft consumer spending, trade drag
• Japan business sentiment weakens in March amid tariff and China concerns
• White House says reciprocal tariffs still intended to take effect from April 2
• UBS note of caution – says S&P futures & stocks liquidity declines to rarely seen levels
• (Not FX!) Astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore have returned to Earth
• FT reports that UK finance minister to squeeze public spending further in Spring Statement
• New Zealand Q4 2024 Current account deficit larger than expected
• ICYMI – Strategy software firm plans to raise up to US$500mn, will buy more Bitcoin
• Central Chile M5.5 earthquake
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 18 Mar: Putin/Trump ceasefire on energy/infrastructure
• Another analyst cuts target price for Tesla (TSLA)
• Oil – private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build larger than expected
• ICYMI – Fitch says Germany’s AAA credit rating could face longer run pressure
• Trade ideas thread – Wednesday, 19 March, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
• New Zealand consumer confidence weakened to 89.2 in Q1 2025, from 97.5 in Q4 2024

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) was the key focus in Asian markets today, as the central bank kept its monetary policy unchanged, maintaining its overnight call rate target at 0.5%. The decision, widely anticipated, follows the January rate hike, which pushed interest rates to their highest level in over 16 years.

Market expectations remain for a gradual approach to further rate hikes, potentially occurring every six months, depending on economic conditions. All eyes now turn to Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference at 0630 GMT / 0230 US Eastern time, where traders will be looking for any signals on the timing of the next rate move, particularly in light of risks from US trade policies under President Trump.

The BoJ’s statement acknowledged heightened uncertainty surrounding Japan’s economy, adding a new reference to the “evolving situation regarding trade.” This suggests policymakers are closely monitoring Trump’s tariff policies, with global trade developments remaining a key risk factor for Japan’s outlook.

In FX markets, USD/JPY edged slightly higher before the BoJ statement, driven by Japanese importer demand for dollars, but remained largely stable post-announcement. Broader currency moves were muted, with traders shifting focus to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference (2pm and 2:30pm US Eastern time, respectively). The Fed is also expected to hold rates steady, leaving market participants searching for clues on future policy direction.

Meanwhile, late-afternoon news from the US added an unexpected twist—Trump reportedly fired two Democratic Federal Trade Commission (FTC) commissioners. While it remains unclear if he has the legal authority to do so, this move challenges Supreme Court precedent, which states that FTC commissioners can only be removed for cause. If upheld, it could set a precedent for Trump to remove Federal Reserve Board members at will, raising concerns over potential destabilization of US monetary policy. Expect this development to gain more attention in US trading hours and keep an eye on risk sentiment in global markets.