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Fed’s Williams: Its early days in figuring out impact of tariffs

Fed’s Williams on Yahoo! News says:

  • it’s early days in figuring out impact of tariffs
  • There is still a lot of uncertainty around tariffs, details matter
  • Need to watch data to measure impact of tariffs
  • Full impact of tariffs can play out over long horizon.
  • Tariffs will impact prices
  • Consumers goods should see quick pass through from tariffs.
  • Intermediate goods could see slow impact from tariffs.
  • There is definitely a risk to inflation being higher that Fed forecasts.
  • My forecast is that inflation will be relatively stable this year with upside risks.
  • Uncertainty is very high right now more concerns about slowing economy.
  • Growth and inflation risks are both very important.
  • Will not predict odds of recession, economy is currently very solid amid good job market.
  • Will not discount weak survey and anecdotal data.
  • Uncertainty appears to be impacting behavior.
  • Fed will not allow high inflation to take root.
  • Fed will achieve inflation goals while being attentive to job mandate.
  • Expects economy will continue to grow but slower than last year.
  • Economy does not have stagflation right now.
  • Expects economy will continue to grow but slower than last year.
  • Monetary policy has been really well-positioned.
  • The current level Fed policy is well-positioned.
  • Fed has the ability to collect more information before changing policy.
  • Fed needs to follow what it learned from data..
  • Does not know exactly where monetary policy needs to be over remainder of years..
  • Fed needs to keep longer run inflation expectations anchored.
  • Longer run inflation expectations have been anchored.
  • Fed balance sheet drawdown slowdown was natural next step

The overall tone of the Williams comments leans slightly dovish, though with a clear emphasis on uncertainty and data dependence.

There are repeated acknowledgments of high uncertainty around tariffs, growth, and inflation trajectories. Several comments express caution, noting that the full impact of tariffs may take time to unfold and that both inflation and growth risks must be monitored. Williams avoids making bold predictions, particularly around recession odds, and emphasizes the importance of watching incoming data before making policy shifts.

These points reflect a generally dovish bias, as they suggest a preference for patience and flexibility rather than aggressive tightening.

However, some hawkish notes are present—especially around inflation risks and the importance of keeping long-run inflation expectations anchored. The speaker is clear that the Fed will not allow high inflation to become entrenched, signaling vigilance.

In summary, the stance is best described as cautiously dovish, with strong elements of uncertainty and a data-driven approach that leaves the door open in either direction depending on how conditions evolve.

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