Logan has said this before but it’s notable that she will be a voter next year.

• Says she would need to see convincing evidence of inflation coming down or jobs market worsening to support December rate cut

Other regional voters are:

• Hammack (hawk)
• Kashkari (not a hawk but not as dovish as before)
• Paulson (said she favors gradual cuts)

I can’t see any of them supporting a December cut except Kashkari but they won’t have votes. However if we do get a cut in December, I certainly can’t see any of them supporting a January cut, barring a change in the data. That starts to align with the curve, which sees 80 bps through 2026. I tend to lean closer to 50 bps but does it really make that much of a difference to broader markets?