- Fed should have neutral policy outlook going forward
- Risk to US inflation is now higher than risk of labour market deterioration
- That said, need to still pay attention to both risks
- Most US data released since April has shown inflationary risks are higher, not lower
- Inflationary shockwave sent across the globe from the Middle East war could persist
- Concern over global inflation is working its way into the bond market
- Far too soon to make such a prediction about when the next move would be (when asked about October odds)
- I want to see what happens in US-Iran negotiations and see how global supply chains are responding
- Confident that Fed policymakers will vote based on their own reading of the economy and what’s appropriate
- “It’s going to be the best ideas ultimately that persuade the committee”
As a reminder, Kashkari dissented during the latest FOMC meeting in April, objecting to the dovish policy statement put out by the central bank. While he voted to keep interest rates unchanged, he wasn’t happy with the language in the statement as he felt that it was still leaning more towards a rate cut rather than it being neutral or acknowledging the upside risks to the inflation outlook.
And his comments above is making it clear how he feels about the issue at least.
That being said, he’s not really pushing too hard to side with a more hawkish positioning. He is still very much keeping mum about what he feels the Fed should do next and when. But as things stand, he would like that optionality in wanting the Fed to be more neutral in its communique.
