While the market price is in 100% chance of a September rate cut, Fed members are less assured it is needed despite the weaker jobs report from earlier this month, and continue to pressure from Pres. Trump. Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostic is on the wires saying that:
- Feel like we have the luxury today to wait to make a policy adjustment because the labor market remains strong.
- Low to moderate income consumers are facing some stress, and that stress is starting to move up the income scale
- Upper income consumers are still okay.
- Small businesses are feeling stressed much more than larger businesses.
- We know a lot more people are using credit cards to buy things that they were before, it’s signaling something about where the consumer is.
The Atlanta Fed GDPnow growth estimate for Q3 is at 2.5%. The latest revision will be announced on Friday.
Meanwhile, The Atlanta Fed’s sticky-price consumer price index (CPI)—a weighted basket of items that change price relatively slowly—rose 4.6 percent (on an annualized basis) in July, following a 4.3 percent increase in June. On a year-over-year basis, the series is up 3.4 percent.
On a core basis (excluding food and energy), the sticky-price index rose 4.8 percent (annualized) in July, and its 12-month percent change was 3.4 percent.
