- Fed policy is holding back the jobs market
- Thinks that the Fed should provide less forward guidance
- Less forward guidance will make policy options more flexible
- Fed should look through energy price shock
- Neither the jobs market nor inflation expectations point to higher inflation
The comments are not surprising as Miran was planted at the Fed by US president Trump specifically for this reason. With Trump wanting lower interest rates, Miran is there to steer the conversation towards that no matter what else is happening. But as a reminder, his term has technically “expired” but he is still at the Fed in a holdover capacity awaiting Kevin Warsh to be confirmed as Fed chair by the Senate.
As such, don’t take the remarks above to mean much as it is not a fair representation of what the majority on the Fed are leaning towards.
With the US-Iran conflict stretching on for longer, policymakers will have to be wary of upside risks to inflation now. And it would be extremely poor form to try and play that down after having been wrongfooted during the whole “inflation is transitory” episode back in 2021-22.
