- BoJ likely to revise up economic, price forecasts in October quarterly outlook report
- Rate hike cannot be ruled out if solid Q2 GDP growth leads to upgrade in board’s growth, price forecasts
- If BoJ focuses on risks, it will likely hold off raising interest rates until March 2026
- A BoJ rate hike to 0.75% will likely do little harm to Japan’s economic growth
Adachi’s term expired in March, so he’s no longer part of the board. Former BoJ member don’t have insider information but they can offer educated guesses on the next BoJ moves given their experience as policymakers.
As a reminder, we had two BoJ members voting for a rate hike at the last meeting and that surprised the markets with the yen rallying across the board and the Nikkei selling off. Governor Ueda downplayed the dissenting votes though and the hawkish moves got faded quickly.
Having said that, the market has been pricing in high chances of a rate hike this year for a very long time, so it won’t make a difference if it’s in October or December. What matters for the markets is what follows that rate hike or whether further rate hikes are completely off the table.
