EURUSD initially moved lower following softer inflation data from France and Spain, as well as a rise in Germany’s unemployment rate and jobless claims—factors that weighed on the euro. However, the tone shifted after Bloomberg reported that the EU is preparing concessions in response to U.S. reciprocal tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

According to sources, the EU aims to secure partial removal of existing U.S. tariffs, which have already hurt EU exports and are set to rise further after April 2. During meetings in Washington, EU officials were told that new auto and reciprocal tariffs are imminent. In response, the European Commission has begun drafting a “term sheet” for a potential deal, which includes negotiating tariff reductions, encouraging mutual investments, and easing regulatory standards. The U.S. tariffs target both tariffs and non-tariff barriers, such as tax policies and digital regulations, which the Trump administration views as unfair trade practices.

The signs of progress toward common ground gave the EURUSD a lift. The pair has now climbed back above the 100-hour moving average (currently at 1.07889 and trending lower) with momentum, reaching new session highs near 1.0807.

Key upside targets now include:

• 1.08195: High of a swing area from early March

• 1.08322: 200-hour moving average, which the price fell below on March 20

Also supporting the bullish bias, today’s low stalled within a key swing zone between 1.07609 and 1.07767—an area of support that dates back to October/November 2024 (see red numbered circles on the 4-hour chart below).

For the week, the price also bounced off the key 200-day MA and the 38.2% retracement. That was a key, key hold for the buyers and shifted the sellers to buyers.