The EURUSD stalled just below its 200-day moving average (1.07258) at the start of the U.S. session, while fluctuating around the 50% midpoint (1.0695) of the September-to-January decline. Buyers stepped in following weaker ADP data, while better-than-expected factory orders and ISM data provided mixed signals and little in the way of dollar buying (at least for now).

Additionally, higher European equities may be attracting capital flows into the pair. Despite marginal gains in U.S. indices, they lack strong upside momentum, contributing to continued dollar selling.

The buying pressure in the US session has now pushed EURUSD above its 200-day moving average for the first time since November 6, signaling a bullish shift. For buyers, staying above this level is key to sustaining upward momentum. A drop back below could signal a failed breakout, with the 50% midpoint at 1.06951 serving as a key downside target—if broken, it would reinforce a bearish bias.

On the upside, resistance is seen in a swing area between 1.07609 and 1.07767. A break above this zone would further strengthen bullish momentum, opening the door toward the 61.8% retracement of the September decline at 1.08174. Buyers now look to hold above the 200-day MA to keep the bullish outlook intact.