The Duke Blue Devils meet the Alabama Crimson Tide with a Final Four berth on the line in Newark, NJ on Saturday night.
In a tournament that thrives on drama and delivers the unexpected, Saturday’s Elite Eight matchup in the East Region might be the most anticipated yet. The Duke Blue Devils, riding a 14-game winning streak, take the floor against the Alabama Crimson Tide, one of the most electric offensive teams in college basketball. It’s a clash of powerhouse programs with very different strengths — but only one can punch a ticket to the Final Four.
Duke comes in with a 34-3 record and the nation’s top-rated team in KenPom. Alabama, at 28-8, is riding the wave of a three-game win streak, fresh off a 113-88 dismantling of BYU — a performance that showcased the offensive firepower Nate Oats has carefully constructed.
We played Alabama and the over in their matchup against BYU and nailed it.
So, what are the best bets for this Saturday night showdown?
Alabama vs. Duke Picks and Best Bets
All Alabama vs. Duke odds are from BetOnline and are correct as of Saturday, Mar. 29.
- Spread
Duke -7 - Moneyline
Duke -285, Alabama +270 - Over/Under
174.5 - Game Time
8:49 p.m. ET - Location
Prudential Center | Newark, NJ - How To Watch
TBS
The Cooper Flagg Show
He was already the most talked-about player in the country before this tournament began. Now, Cooper Flagg is showing why. In Duke’s Sweet 16 win over Arizona, Flagg poured in 30 points and dished out seven assists, slicing through the Wildcats with the kind of command and poise that belies his age.
30 PTS
6 REB
7 AST
3 BLKOne of the greatest we’ve ever seen at the collegiate level. @Cooper_Flagg
— Zion O. (@DukeNBA) March 28, 2025
The freshman is Duke’s leading scorer (19.0 PPG), rebounder (7.5 RPG), and facilitator (4.3 APG). But what makes Flagg truly unguardable is the ecosystem around him. Tyrese Proctor, Kon Knueppel, and Sion James all benefit from the attention Flagg draws, spacing the floor and knocking down shots when defenses collapse. Proctor is a 40% shooter from deep, while Knueppel adds 14.2 points per game with his silky perimeter game.
The dilemma is constant: guard Flagg one-on-one and risk him overpowering you, or double him and hope Duke’s sharpshooters cool off. Most teams have chosen the latter — and lost anyway.
Alabama’s Answer: Sears and Speed
If Flagg is the most impactful freshman in the tournament, then Mark Sears may be the most explosive senior. The Alabama guard dropped 34 points in the win over BYU, continuing his standout tournament. Sears leads the Crimson Tide with 19.0 points and 5.1 assists per game and is the emotional engine behind Oats’ high-octane system.
MARK SEARS MARCH LEGEND 🎯🔥🔥
• 34 PTS
• 10 3PT
• 8 AST pic.twitter.com/ddQECE0nUZ— House of Highlights (@HoHighlights) March 28, 2025
Alabama plays fast. They shoot threes. And when they’re hot — like they were against BYU — they can overwhelm anyone. The Tide average 91.1 points per game and shoot nearly 40% from deep since February 1.
But behind Sears, the supporting cast is slightly less reliable. Chris Youngblood and Aden Holloway can hit shots, but players like Grant Nelson, Labaron Philon, and Cliff Omoruyi aren’t perimeter threats. Against Duke’s long and disciplined defense, Alabama’s options narrow quickly if their top three shooters are contained.
Duke’s Size Matters
Duke’s size and defensive versatility might be the hidden key in this matchup. Nobody in their rotation stands under 6-foot-5, giving them the length to contest shots, wall off driving lanes, and frustrate quicker guards like Sears. Alabama’s smaller backcourt could struggle to initiate offense, particularly if Duke forces them into half-court sets.
Duke also excels at limiting high-percentage looks inside, holding teams to just 43% from 2-point range. That spells trouble for an Alabama team allowing opponents to shoot over 50% from inside the arc.
Perhaps the biggest chess match will be tempo. Alabama ranks third in offensive efficiency since February 1, but their defense is just 28th in that same span. Their best bet is to run, press, and keep the game chaotic. Duke, meanwhile, prefers a more measured approach. They sit 257th in adjusted tempo — not slow, but certainly not frantic.
If Alabama controls the pace, they can make this a track meet. But if Duke imposes its will, gets stops, and slows the game down, the Blue Devils’ precision and size advantage could take over.
Best Bets: Duke -7
This is the kind of game that defines March. It’s firepower vs. fundamentals—speed vs. structure. But with Cooper Flagg playing at an MVP level and Duke’s defense built to contain Alabama’s weapons, the edge goes to the Blue Devils.
Mark Sears will get his points. But Duke’s length, spacing, and coaching will prove too much down the stretch. Alabama can make it interesting, but if the Tide go cold — even briefly — Duke has the firepower to pull away.
Final Pick: Duke -7
Prediction: Duke 89, Alabama 78
The Blue Devils are rolling, and with the Final Four in sight, Cooper Flagg and company aren’t done writing their March masterpiece.
