Its a busy data agenda to follow a very eventful session in the US timezone. Hawkish Fed, escalation in the Middle East taking a toll on risk sentiment.
- The screen snapshot is from the investingLive economic data calendar.
- The times in the left-most column are GMT.
- The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
- I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.
Like the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.75%.
BoJ policymakers are likely to favour patience as uncertainty around the global backdrop intensifies. The ongoing Middle East conflict remains a key concern, with risks that prolonged tensions could weigh on global demand and spill over into Japan’s export-driven economy.
Financial markets have already shown signs of strain. Japanese equities initially sold off sharply following the escalation, before recovering part of those losses, highlighting the fragile sentiment environment the BoJ must navigate.
Currency dynamics will also be front of mind. The yen has weakened to multi-year lows against the US dollar, and given the role FX moves played in previous policy decisions, traders will be alert to any signals that exchange rate developments could again influence the central bank’s thinking.
Domestically, inflation trends are offering little urgency to act. Tokyo CPI data for February showed underlying price pressures easing, with core inflation slipping back below the 2% target, reinforcing the case for holding policy steady for now.
Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to maintain a cautious, data-dependent tone, reiterating that further rate increases remain possible if the outlook improves. Markets continue to lean toward gradual tightening later this year, though timing remains uncertain.
Previews:
From Australia we have the February 2026 jobs report. The Reserve Bank of Australia has placed a higher priority on taming inflation over preserving job gains with back-to-back rate rises:
The Bank’s decision to hike this week was made in a 5 to 4 decision. The recent RBA review has taken much of the decision making away from professional staff at the bank and handed it to external members of the policy board. The impact, at this week’s meeting at least, was to ‘water down’ the impact of the rate hike. Prior to the rejig of the RBA the decision would more likely to have been closer to unanimity, which would have enhanced the message of tightening. This 5-4 split, well publicised, wasted an opportunity to drive a more strident message home.
