The euro is up 75 pips to 1.1525 today in a big rebound and a spike from earlier. The market may be sensing a big TACO trade as the war looks like something Trump doesn’t really want, especially with energy as the stakes.

Headlines from Lagarde:

• Inflation risks are tilted to the upside

The pop in the euro is part of a broad USD selloff and it might relate to headlines or speculation about the war. A joint European letter condemned Iran’s energy strikes and said they were ready to contribute to reopening the Strait.

I wouldn’t be focused on this press conference as a trader as it’s offering up some hard-hitting analysis from Lagarde like:

“A prolonged war could increase energy prices for longer”

Thanks Christine.

I don’t see a big pushback on the idea of pricing in of rate hikes but that’s come down from +66 bps to +56 bps in the past 20 minutes.