The European Central Bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, with inflation now closely aligned to the bank’s 2% target. Policymakers see little urgency to adjust policy in the near term, but lingering concerns around global trade tensions and political uncertainty mean the door to further easing remains open.

President Christine Lagarde is expected to strike a cautious tone, keeping markets guessing on the timing of any future adjustments. While acknowledging that inflation has settled near target, she is likely to highlight potential downside risks, particularly if geopolitical frictions or weaker global demand weigh on growth and price pressures.

For now, the ECB’s stance is one of watchful waiting: balancing the comfort of inflation convergence with the risks that external shocks could yet derail progress.

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European Central Bank meeting is today, Thursday, September 11, 2025.

• Decision due at 1215 GMT / 0815 US Eastern time
• Lagarde’s news conference follows a half hour later.

EUR traders will focus on Lagarde’s tone, with any dovish hints likely to act as a headwind to further euro gains.