The VIX is up to 27 today but that might not be enough.

Even a cursory look at the volatility index shows that it can rise much higher as it did several times in 2022. In August of last year it exploded on the yen carry trade unwind and that ultimately marked a very tradeable bottom. That bottom was reinforced by strong order numbers from Nvidia and the Fed shifting to a dovish stance.

I think this time, we would need some sign of less-antagonistic policy from Washington.