Deutsche Bank has revised down its first-quarter U.S. GDP growth forecast to 1.5% (annualized), a 1 percentage point cut from its previous estimate, citing weaker-than-expected consumer spending and a greater drag from net exports.

The downgrade also has broader implications for 2025, with the bank now projecting inflation-adjusted GDP growth at 2.3% (Q4/Q4)—20 basis points lower than its prior forecast.

A softer start to the year has also led Deutsche Bank to revise its 2025 unemployment rate forecast upward by 20 basis points to 4.1%, reflecting potential headwinds in the labor market as economic momentum slows.

The adjustments highlight concerns over the resilience of consumer demand and trade dynamics as key factors shaping the U.S. economic outlook.