A collaborative research effort between the A*STAR Infectious Diseases Labs (A*STAR IDL) and the A*STAR Institute of High Performance Computing (A*STAR IHPC) has provided new insights into the likelihood of mpox spreading by airborne respiratory particles, comparing it to SARS-CoV-2 and smallpox.

The interdisciplinary study, published in The Lancet Microbe, underscores the importance of computational modeling in infectious disease research, combining virology and simulations to assess potential viral transmission risks.

The study addresses a critical question in public health: could mpox evolve to become efficiently airborne like its viral relative, smallpox? While close physical contact remains the dominant mode of transmission, the presence of mpox virus in respiratory fluids, such as mucus and saliva, raises concerns about possible aerosol transmission under certain conditions.

To investigate this, researchers integrated virological data with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to model the transmission of respiratory aerosols in a typical indoor setting. Their findings reveal that the inhaled infectious dose of mpox is at least 100 times lower than that of SARS-CoV-2 and smallpox, making efficient respiratory aerosol transmission highly unlikely in its current form. However, the study suggests that future viral evolution could alter this dynamic, underscoring the need for continued surveillance.

Interdisciplinary collaboration for public health insights

“This research is a testament to the power of interdisciplinary collaboration,” said Dr. Matthew Tay, corresponding author and Principal Scientist at A*STAR IDL. “By combining expertise in virology with advanced computational modeling from our colleagues at A*STAR IHPC, we have been able to quantitatively address a key question in mpox transmission that would otherwise be almost impossible to study experimentally.”

Dr. Fong Yew Leong, first author and Principal Scientist from A*STAR IHPC, further emphasized the role of computational methods in infectious disease research. “The integration of CFD simulations and passive scalar transport modeling allows us to estimate pathogenic transmission risks at higher spatial resolutions compared to general population models. The deep expertise in virology from A*STAR IDL helped us conceptualize inferences from seemingly unrelated, but looming pathogens, such as mpox. Exploring such synergies contributes greatly towards pandemic preparedness.”

The study also highlights key knowledge gaps, particularly the need for further research to determine the precise dose of airborne mpox that results in human infection. The authors recommend ongoing monitoring of new mpox variants for changes in viral shedding and infectivity that could influence transmission potential.