Citi has raised its 0–3 month gold price target to $3,500/oz (from $3,300), now expecting gold to trade in a $3,300–$3,600/oz range in the near term. The shift comes amid a deteriorating US cyclical outlook, higher-than-expected tariffs, weakening labor market trends, and growing concerns over Fed and data independence.

Key Points:

• Target Raised to $3,500/oz:
  Citi upgrades its near-term gold forecast to $3,500/oz, with a new expected trading range of $3,300–$3,600/oz for the next three months.

• Inflation & Growth Risks Worsen:
  Higher US tariffs are seen as more inflationary than previously expected, while incoming labor market data shows clear signs of deterioration.

• Policy & Institutional Risk:
  Citi flags increasing concerns around Fed independence and credibility of US economic data as further tailwinds for gold.

• From Range Trading to Bullish Breakout:
  For the past three months, Citi toggled forecasts between $3,150 and $3,500, but recent macro developments now support a bullish breakout.

Conclusion:

Citi is firmly reinforcing its bullish stance on gold, projecting new all-time highs amid a worsening macro backdrop in the US. With gold increasingly viewed as a hedge against inflation, policy instability, and geopolitical uncertainty, Citi expects sustained strength in the precious metal in the months ahead.

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