Citigroup economists say the government shutdown continues to distort the U.S. data calendar, but key releases may still trickle out — albeit with caveats. The team noted on Wednesday that September nonfarm payrolls could arrive as early as Friday, though the more realistic window is early next week. October payrolls, by contrast, may take until early December to assemble given the large gaps in survey collection.
Info via CNBC.
Citi also expects the October CPI report and October jobs data to be published, but stresses the figures may be less reliable than usual. They said statistical agencies may need to rely on retrospective surveys, interpolation and estimates to fill holes left by the shutdown.
Even so, Citi sees the underlying trend as softening. The bank expects labour market data to weaken further and believes the Federal Reserve remains on course to cut rates at the December, January and March meetings.
