The Chicago Fed releases a real-time unemployment forecast and sees as slight improvement in November at 4.44% vs 4.46% in October. The survey highlights how they’ve had to adjust due to the lack of non-farm payrolls.

“To estimate the November 2025 unemployment rate probabilities, we made
an adjustment to account for the cancellation of the November 7th
release of BLS data for October,” the report said.

Note that the distribution of probabilities is tilted higher.